Andrew Coyne: Wynne’s budget makes Bob Rae’s NDP look like flinty-eyed fiscal conservativesAndrew Coyne | May 1, 2014image Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne listens as Finance Minister Charles Sousa, right, delivers the 2014 budget at Queen's Park in Toronto on Thursday, May 1, 2014. On the way into the Ontario budget lockup, you passed through no fewer than half a dozen police checks: uniformed cops, with guns, bulletproof vests, the works. You’d have thought you were entering NATO central command. All this, for a budget whose contents were already known to everyone. Which gives you something of the surreal flavour of the event. Not only had the budget been leaked, steadily, for weeks, but in all likelihood it will never be implemented, assuming the government falls over it. One can’t be sure, of course: the NDP leader, Andrea Horwath, whose decision it is to make, declined to offer any comment. On the budget. On budget day. That, too, gives you a flavour of the proceedings. And yet, as strange as the whole thing was, there was at the same time a strong sense of the familiar. Why yes: reading the budget, one was taken back to the last days of the Bob Rae government, two decades ago — that same feeling that those in charge had no real grasp on the size of the hole they had dug for themselves, nor any serious plan to get out of it. In retrospect, the comparison seems unfair. Rae was a flinty-eyed fiscal conservative compared to this bunch. At a time when ratings agencies are threatening to downgrade Ontario’s debt — again — amid serious concerns about the province’s ability to attract and retain investment, the policy direction advocated by the province’s government is to spend more, tax more, and borrow more. The deficit, far from declining, is projected to increase again this year, before miraculously melting away over the succeeding three.The province’s net debt, at $289-billion already nearly double what it was when the Liberals took power, is projected to grow by another 18% — $48-billion — over the next three years; debt service costs, even at today’s historically low interest rates, are projected to climb by a third. The debt-to-GDP ratio will hit 42% this year, up from 28% a decade ago. What is the government doing about this gathering fiscal calamity? Once, long ago, under a government the current premier, Kathleen Wynne, insists she had no part of — the government of Dalton McGuinty, her immediate predecessor — the province made a pass at restraining spending. Program spending was held constant for two years running (can you believe it: two years!) But that has since been abandoned. Spending is now running more than $4-billion over the track laid out by the economist Don Drummond, whose 2012 report the government claims to be following. (80% of his recommendations, the budget claims, have been implemented! Just none of the main ones!) image At roughly 17% of GDP, the Liberals aren’t just spending more than the Conservative government that preceded them (average: 13.4%) or even the free-spending Liberal government of David Peterson (14%). They’re spending more than Rae’s government (16.4%). Measured in real dollars per citizen, the Wynne Liberals are now spending one-third more than the Harris Tories, one-quarter more than the Rae New Democrats, and nearly 50% more than the Peterson Liberals. And that’s just the current numbers. The budget also outlines a 10-year, $29-billion spending spree — sorry, a “bold new plan” — on transit and transportation projects. I say outline, because the government has barely begun to fill in the details, notably how it is going to pay for it. Roughly half of the “dedicated funding” assigned to it would come from earmarking existing taxes — which simply shifts the revenue problem onto the programs those taxes are currently paying for. Another tenth or so is supposed to come from “asset optimization,” based on recommendations that have yet to be made by a blue-ribbon panel that has barely been struck. A further 5% is from tax increases — sorry, “targeted revenue measures.” And the rest, fully one-third of it, they’ll either borrow or extract (they hope) from the feds. image |