Feb 9, 2015
They claimed to have between 60 and 70 of the 102 votes in the Liberal party room. But Mr Turnbull’s camp was quietly confident that he had the numbers and would make an announcement this morning that he would be a candidate for the leadership should the spill motion succeed.
The one wildcard is anticipated bad polling this morning which is expected to mirror a Galaxy poll in the Sunday Telegraph yesterday which showed the Coalition trailing Labor 57/43 on a two-party preferred basis.
As of last night Mr Turnbull had still not publicly declared his intentions, leaving some wavering MPs angered that they were being expected to vote in a spill that still had no candidate.
He left the door open, however, admitting that he had been canvassing his colleagues.
He did not out a challenge if the spill of the leadership was successful, claiming it was “a gift of the party room” and that any MP had the right to nominate in a leadership ballot without being disloyal.
“I am talking to my colleagues, they are the people I want to talk to,” he said.
Elevating the farce to new levels, deputy leader Julie Bishop appeared to throw her hat back in the ring for the leadership, refusing to rule out when asked if she would also be a candidate.
Several of Mr Turnbull’s chief backers, including Queensland MP Steve Ciobo who was in the United States, were racing to get to Canberra for the morning’s vote.
Tony Abbott in Chinatown last night / Picture: Damian Shaw
Mr Abbott last night said he was “chastened” by the calls for him to go but repeated his plea that his party didn’t follow Labor into the political abyss.
The last thing we want to see is a meltdown in government … we saw it in the last government and frankly it was a bit embarrassing,” he said.
In an attempt to garner more support among colleagues from South Australia, in what was seen as a desperate move, Mr Abbott announced he would put the controversial Australian submarine contract expected to be granted to Japan, out to open tender for local bidding.
But even his backers said he would have to go further, with calls for him to jettison more baggage such as the Medicare co-payment policy and even higher education reforms.
Yesterday it was a tale of two cities within Sydney as Mr Abbott, flanked by wife Margie and daughter Bridget, was mobbed by wellwishers in Chinatown, while Mr Turnbull and Ms Bishop courted a media pack in Woollahra outside the mansion of Lady Burrell in a party fundraiser.
The PM had earlier yesterday sought to head off two days of chaos in Parliament by announcing that he would bring the spill forward to this morning.
They claimed to have between 60 and 70 of the 102 votes in the Liberal party room. But Mr Turnbull’s camp was quietly confident that he had the numbers and would make an announcement this morning that he would be a candidate for the leadership should the spill motion succeed.
NEWSPOLL: COALITION VOTERS SAY NO TO MALCOLM
ABBOTT’S ROCK STAR RECEPTION IN CHINATOWN
TURNBULL SAYS HE SUPPORTS PM ABBOTT
ABBOTT’S POLITICAL GAFFES AND SLIP-UPS
ABBOTT WANTED FOR SELFIES IN CHINATOWN
LIVE STREAM: LEADERSHIP SPILL VOTE FROM 9AM
The one wildcard is anticipated bad polling this morning which is expected to mirror a Galaxy poll in the Sunday Telegraph yesterday which showed the Coalition trailing Labor 57/43 on a two-party preferred basis.
As of last night Mr Turnbull had still not publicly declared his intentions, leaving some wavering MPs angered that they were being expected to vote in a spill that still had no candidate.
He left the door open, however, admitting that he had been canvassing his colleagues.
He did not out a challenge if the spill of the leadership was successful, claiming it was “a gift of the party room” and that any MP had the right to nominate in a leadership ballot without being disloyal.
“I am talking to my colleagues, they are the people I want to talk to,” he said.
Elevating the farce to new levels, deputy leader Julie Bishop appeared to throw her hat back in the ring for the leadership, refusing to rule out when asked if she would also be a candidate.
Several of Mr Turnbull’s chief backers, including Queensland MP Steve Ciobo who was in the United States, were racing to get to Canberra for the morning’s vote.
Tony Abbott in Chinatown last night / Picture: Damian Shaw
Mr Abbott last night said he was “chastened” by the calls for him to go but repeated his plea that his party didn’t follow Labor into the political abyss.
The last thing we want to see is a meltdown in government … we saw it in the last government and frankly it was a bit embarrassing,” he said.
In an attempt to garner more support among colleagues from South Australia, in what was seen as a desperate move, Mr Abbott announced he would put the controversial Australian submarine contract expected to be granted to Japan, out to open tender for local bidding.
But even his backers said he would have to go further, with calls for him to jettison more baggage such as the Medicare co-payment policy and even higher education reforms.
Yesterday it was a tale of two cities within Sydney as Mr Abbott, flanked by wife Margie and daughter Bridget, was mobbed by wellwishers in Chinatown, while Mr Turnbull and Ms Bishop courted a media pack in Woollahra outside the mansion of Lady Burrell in a party fundraiser.
The PM had earlier yesterday sought to head off two days of chaos in Parliament by announcing that he would bring the spill forward to this morning.
It had originally been called for Tuesday’s party room meeting by the two rogue West Australian MPs Luke Simpkins and Don Randall.
Disgruntled backbencher Arthur Sinodinos, who was last year forced to resign from the Ministry over an ICAC investigation, said he would now support the spill because of the decision to bring it forward to Monday.
Treasurer Joe Hockey, who is expected to be another casualty should Mr Abbott lose his leadership, called on Cabinet Ministers who supported a spill to resign for disloyalty.
If Mr Turnbull is successful, it is expected that Social Services Minister Scott Morrison would take over as Treasurer.
Tony Abbott takes a walk through Chinatown last night / Picture: Damian Shaw
YOU DON’T HAVE TO BE EINSTEIN TO FIGURE OUT FOLLY OF GOING DOWN LABOR’S WELL-WORN PATH TO THE POLITICAL WILDERNESS
Simon Benson comment
IF the lessons of the Labor Party aren’t clear enough, the words of the smartest person to ever live should be echoing in the ears of the Liberal Party today as it considers its future.
“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.”
So said Albert Einstein.
This is the risk for the Liberal Party, and the Coalition in government. Whatever the outcome of the secret ballot this morning, such damage may have already been done that it won’t matter who wins.
Tony Abbott’s enemies expect that even if he scrapes through and beats the spill, his leadership will have been dealt such a blow that it will only be revisited down the track. The argument goes that he could not lead a party in which many of its members want him gone.
But the same applies to Malcolm Turnbull. If he does not succeed in getting 80 per cent or more of the party room behind him, his leadership will be nobbled from the beginning. He too will lead a party deeply divided.
The question is whether he could lead the Coalition out of the wilderness it is in. Will it be able to prove Einstein wrong?
Those in the Liberal Party room have short memories. The last poll Turnbull enjoyed when he was opposition leader in 2009 produced similar numbers to those of Abbott’s now in government. The two party preferred vote was 56-44 in favour of Labor. And Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating was minus 33.
They claimed to have between 60 and 70 of the 102 votes in the Liberal party room. But Mr Turnbull’s camp was quietly confident that he had the numbers and would make an announcement this morning that he would be a candidate for the leadership should the spill motion succeed.
NEWSPOLL: COALITION VOTERS SAY NO TO MALCOLM
ABBOTT’S ROCK STAR RECEPTION IN CHINATOWN
TURNBULL SAYS HE SUPPORTS PM ABBOTT
ABBOTT’S POLITICAL GAFFES AND SLIP-UPS
ABBOTT WANTED FOR SELFIES IN CHINATOWN
LIVE STREAM: LEADERSHIP SPILL VOTE FROM 9AM
The one wildcard is anticipated bad polling this morning which is expected to mirror a Galaxy poll in the Sunday Telegraph yesterday which showed the Coalition trailing Labor 57/43 on a two-party preferred basis.
As of last night Mr Turnbull had still not publicly declared his intentions, leaving some wavering MPs angered that they were being expected to vote in a spill that still had no candidate.
He left the door open, however, admitting that he had been canvassing his colleagues.
He did not out a challenge if the spill of the leadership was successful, claiming it was “a gift of the party room” and that any MP had the right to nominate in a leadership ballot without being disloyal.
“I am talking to my colleagues, they are the people I want to talk to,” he said.
Elevating the farce to new levels, deputy leader Julie Bishop appeared to throw her hat back in the ring for the leadership, refusing to rule out when asked if she would also be a candidate.
Several of Mr Turnbull’s chief backers, including Queensland MP Steve Ciobo who was in the United States, were racing to get to Canberra for the morning’s vote.
Tony Abbott in Chinatown last night / Picture: Damian Shaw
Mr Abbott last night said he was “chastened” by the calls for him to go but repeated his plea that his party didn’t follow Labor into the political abyss.
The last thing we want to see is a meltdown in government … we saw it in the last government and frankly it was a bit embarrassing,” he said.
In an attempt to garner more support among colleagues from South Australia, in what was seen as a desperate move, Mr Abbott announced he would put the controversial Australian submarine contract expected to be granted to Japan, out to open tender for local bidding.
But even his backers said he would have to go further, with calls for him to jettison more baggage such as the Medicare co-payment policy and even higher education reforms.
Yesterday it was a tale of two cities within Sydney as Mr Abbott, flanked by wife Margie and daughter Bridget, was mobbed by wellwishers in Chinatown, while Mr Turnbull and Ms Bishop courted a media pack in Woollahra outside the mansion of Lady Burrell in a party fundraiser.
The PM had earlier yesterday sought to head off two days of chaos in Parliament by announcing that he would bring the spill forward to this morning.
It had originally been called for Tuesday’s party room meeting by the two rogue West Australian MPs Luke Simpkins and Don Randall.
Disgruntled backbencher Arthur Sinodinos, who was last year forced to resign from the Ministry over an ICAC investigation, said he would now support the spill because of the decision to bring it forward to Monday.
Treasurer Joe Hockey, who is expected to be another casualty should Mr Abbott lose his leadership, called on Cabinet Ministers who supported a spill to resign for disloyalty.
If Mr Turnbull is successful, it is expected that Social Services Minister Scott Morrison would take over as Treasurer.
Tony Abbott takes a walk through Chinatown last night / Picture: Damian Shaw
YOU DON’T HAVE TO BE EINSTEIN TO FIGURE OUT FOLLY OF GOING DOWN LABOR’S WELL-WORN PATH TO THE POLITICAL WILDERNESS
Simon Benson comment
IF the lessons of the Labor Party aren’t clear enough, the words of the smartest person to ever live should be echoing in the ears of the Liberal Party today as it considers its future.
“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.”
So said Albert Einstein.
This is the risk for the Liberal Party, and the Coalition in government. Whatever the outcome of the secret ballot this morning, such damage may have already been done that it won’t matter who wins.
Tony Abbott’s enemies expect that even if he scrapes through and beats the spill, his leadership will have been dealt such a blow that it will only be revisited down the track. The argument goes that he could not lead a party in which many of its members want him gone.
But the same applies to Malcolm Turnbull. If he does not succeed in getting 80 per cent or more of the party room behind him, his leadership will be nobbled from the beginning. He too will lead a party deeply divided.
The question is whether he could lead the Coalition out of the wilderness it is in. Will it be able to prove Einstein wrong?
Those in the Liberal Party room have short memories. The last poll Turnbull enjoyed when he was opposition leader in 2009 produced similar numbers to those of Abbott’s now in government. The two party preferred vote was 56-44 in favour of Labor. And Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating was minus 33.
Turnbull’s “sugar hit” was short-lived. The party turned on him then, and they will presumably turn on him again. There is a view that while Turnbull can strip Labor voters away in polling, it has yet to be tested at an election whether these people would make the leap and vote Liberal.
A Galaxy poll in The Sunday Telegraph showed that even with the Turnbull sugar hit of a change now demonstrating a six-point jump in the two party preferred vote, it would not put the Coalition ahead of Labor. At 51-49 in favour of Labor, the numbers suggest Turnbull would make the Coalition competitive again.
But many hoped he would have catapulted the Coalition out of its torpor. Even Labor MPs were surprised, believing the polls would have put the government ahead for the first time with Turnbull.
And that doesn’t take into account the chaos of a spill and the impact that would have on polling.
The question paramount in the minds of the party room this morning is what is to be gained in the national interest, rather than their own.
It is almost inconceivable that with the economy in peril and national security at stake — not to mention having troops active in two theatres of war — this is being contemplated. This is an important consideration. Turnbull has not sat on the national security committee of cabinet. It is unknown how the security and intelligence agencies would respond to a change of leader at a time when it is one of the country’s most important issues.
MPs are contemplating a change to a leader who has no articulated policy agenda other than presumably dumping some of the baggage that Abbott and his treasurer Joe Hockey have accumulated, like Medicare and higher education. History has shown even if Turnbull is the more popular leader, and the preferred prime minister, the electorate will punish the Liberal Party for the instability.
The choice is potentially getting kicked out of office on principle under Abbott or winning the politics and popularity contest under Turnbull. But even with Turnbull, the latter is not guaranteed
.
Commentary by the Ottawa Mens Centre
Before Julia Bishop thinks she can challenge for the PM position,
Australians need to be reminded of her refusal as Minister for Foreign Affairs
of her decision NOT to take any interest in an Australia Child Citizen who was
incarcerated in Ottawa Ontario as the result of Fabrication of Evidence by a
lawyer and a police detective who was later removed and charges laid by another
detective.
Julie Bishop was provided with incontrovertible evidence that the Ottawa Police
and the unaccountable Child Protection private corporation called the Children's
Aid Society of Ottawa flagrantly fabricated evidence to place an Australia Child
with a mother who was charged with death threats and assault for death threats
and 55 assaults in one day.
Julie Bishop was also provided with translations that showed the mother had an
addiction to Strangulation and spoke of strangling the children.
Julia Bishop took no notice when another male partner reported to Police that
she assaulted him with a stranglehold to his neck and the Ottawa Police did
nothing.
To date, Julia Bishop has failed in her responsibility to express a concern
when an Australian Child Citizen is not being treated fairly. Julie Bishop has
failed in her responsibility as the Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs and
should simply resign.
If she can't act as a responsible DEFAT minister she can't be realistically
considered for the Role of PM.
Ottawa Mens Centre
Anyone would think we were watching a episode of "survivor" with a collection
of politicians too gutless to make the necessary decisions that any high school
student can figure out.
(a) Tony Abbott's personality and or mental health is getting increasingly
bizarre and it is blatantly obvious to everyone in Australia that he is well
past his use by date and his continued role of "captain" will only cause fatal
prejudice to the Liberals.
(b) Malcolm Turnbull and Julia Gillard are equally unacceptable as future
leaders of the Liberals.
(c) That indicates that the next leader of the Liberal Party is relatively
unknown who has yet to dragged to attention in the Liberal party.
At this glorious level of conceited arrogance, Tony Abbott is guaranteed to make
ever more bizarre decisions with even less consultation with others or even
listen to Peta who just might decide to run for election and there lies possibly
the only visible potential Liberal Leader.
www.OttawaMensCentre.com
--Mark Kenny has again provided an incredibly accurate description and
analysis of Tony Abbott's problems that prevent him from continuing as PM.
Turnbull and Bishop have their own sharp knives ready to slice and dice Abbott
if and when they think they can win a political fight with knives while chained
together.
Turnbull has his own disastrous track record and promises to let his ego go to
his head just like Abbott, Rudd and Gillard.
Bishop by default becomes the next possible prime minister but most probably
will not be PM at the next election.
That leaves a dark horse who has yet to be the only possible leader and
presented as such.
Mark Kenny editorial is perhaps one of the few reliable sane opinions that
provide a virtual crystal ball into the future of Australian Politics.
www.OttawaMensCentre.com